CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - GangKui Cup Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabd1c097626bf6e28bd331bf9eb9b5da8f0f7791d611a50b74af57a2ccc5d0a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuestof FlyQuest, SemperFi Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked FlyQuest | 74c | 3,299$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.52 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed SemperFi Esports | 25c | 1,783$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.75 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed SemperFi Esports | 10c | 898.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 134 | 36.6%49 W · 85 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked SemperFi Esports | 30c | 806.12$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.62 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed SemperFi Esports | 9c | 672.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked FlyQuest | 69c | 640.08$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.42 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed SemperFi Esports | 29c | 633.86$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.82 | 367 | 42.8%157 W · 210 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked SemperFi Esports | 62c | 599.96$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.97 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SemperFi Esports | 28c | 550.77$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.54 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed SemperFi Esports | 32c | 542.54$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.91 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed FlyQuest | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 298 | 58.4%174 W · 124 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…c55ebacked FlyQuest | 38c | 384.01$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.08 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…51b1backed SemperFi Esports | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed SemperFi Esports | 27c | 283.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed FlyQuest | 70c | 280.57$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed SemperFi Esports | 28c | 256.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 540 | 32.4%175 W · 365 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed FlyQuest | 68c | 242.97$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…b50ebacked FlyQuest | 71c | 166.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked SemperFi Esports | 22c | 123.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed FlyQuest | 71c | 111.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 219 | 47.5%104 W · 115 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked SemperFi Esports | 15c | 108.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed SemperFi Esports | 41c | 106.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…a8e5backed FlyQuest | 38c | 101.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked SemperFi Esports | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c19…859cbacked FlyQuest | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked FlyQuest | 68c | 95.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5a…6eabbacked SemperFi Esports | 11c | 91.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked SemperFi Esports | 29c | 87.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 171 | 50.3%86 W · 85 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…3411backed FlyQuest | 68c | 73.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…3bbebacked SemperFi Esports | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 384 | 52.1%200 W · 184 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24c…5838backed SemperFi Esports | 33c | 46.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed SemperFi Esports | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ca…61e4backed SemperFi Esports | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…6df7backed FlyQuest | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0696backed FlyQuest | 80c | 18.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed FlyQuest | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 123 | 68.3%84 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - GangKui Cup Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs SemperFi Esports - Map 1 WinnerFlyQuest won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.