Fifa International · resolved market
Will Turkey beat Iceland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe66f8e2fe86ee55bd8c4758adae8480a6227498b156cd137059e9d59f7c728
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 46c | 1,615$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.91 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.29 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…0042backed Yes | 50c | 990.8$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 47c | 839.15$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.05 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 47c | 723.92$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes | 34c | 707.43$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.89 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 48c | 663.98$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.86 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 48c | 619.09$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 51c | 539.61$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.03 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…a827backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 49c | 351$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 54c | 278.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 37c | 275.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…1926backed No | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…24abbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…d146backed Yes | 47c | 188$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 72c | 181.61$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…721abacked Yes | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 37c | 123.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…f8efbacked Yes | 50c | 120.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 48c | 62.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cf…7deabacked Yes | 47c | 59.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6454…76ebbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…0753backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…ecfabacked Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Turkey beat Iceland?this page
- Will Iceland beat Turkey?No won
- Will the match between Iceland and Turkey end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.