Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Royer: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac2577e217d3dd645b46d3654068d18cfd8926e65993ef1ce317b6033787f279
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over 2.5 | 14c | 6,512$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.68 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Over 2.5 | 15c | 5,123$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.69 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 32c | 1,753$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.48 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over 2.5 | 61c | 775.86$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.92 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…3415backed Over 2.5 | 14c | 621.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Under 2.5 | 38c | 601.59$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.17 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over 2.5 | 7c | 519.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over 2.5 | 14c | 357.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Under 2.5 | 25c | 300$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.04 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over 2.5 | 56c | 235.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over 2.5 | 13c | 203.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…eb28backed Under 2.5 | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…1189backed Over 2.5 | 21c | 184.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked Over 2.5 | 53c | 169.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Under 2.5 | 39c | 165.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under 2.5 | 66c | 151.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 207 | 48.3%100 W · 107 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Over 2.5 | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 58.8%107 W · 75 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…b053backed Under 2.5 | 77c | 139.15$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 115.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 600 | 55.7%334 W · 266 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Over 2.5 | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 123 | 13.8%17 W · 106 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Under 2.5 | 28c | 75.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x01e8…bbf5backed Under 2.5 | 62c | 61.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Under 2.5 | 33c | 42.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over 2.5 | 51c | 41.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Over 2.5 | 72c | 41.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Under 2.5 | 32c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…c86cbacked Over 2.5 | 55c | 30.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Under 2.5 | 47c | 25.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 24.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Under 2.5 | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 217 | 59.4%129 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Under 2.5 | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Royer: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Royer: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Royer: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Royer: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin RoyerAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs RoyerAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.