Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Royer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacb4ae88d3fc09dd8f50899655f0b1cc5fb778617c98c00f631b01edf53b7f97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Royer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Royer | 3c | 28,287$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.86 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Royer | 2c | 21,983$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.7 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Royer | 3c | 16,858$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.54 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Royer | 3c | 12,567$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.99 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Royer | 10c | 8,952$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.06 | 191 | 34%65 W · 126 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Royer | 5c | 8,845$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.55 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Royer | 7c | 4,317$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.71 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Royer | 4c | 4,200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Royer | 1c | 2,583$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Royer | 3c | 2,114$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Royer | 13c | 1,556$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Royer | 3c | 1,432$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Royer | 4c | 1,218$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Royer | 3c | 1,149$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…f66ebacked Royer | 1c | 1,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Royer | 3c | 1,084$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Royer | 3c | 1,029$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 189 | 32.3%61 W · 128 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Royer | 2c | 1,004$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…dd00backed Royer | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Royer | 8c | 999.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Royer | 4c | 966.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Royer | 4c | 651$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Royer | 4c | 582$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Royer | 4c | 528.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Royer | 4c | 525.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Royer | 4c | 473.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Royer | 4c | 463.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Royer | 11c | 452.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Royer | 5c | 381.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…a376backed Royer | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed Royer | 4c | 352.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Royer | 4c | 333.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Royer | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Royer | 9c | 232.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Royer | 9c | 212.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Royer | 8c | 204.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 139 | 23.7%33 W · 106 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…ac75backed Royer | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Royer | 9c | 154.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Royer | 11c | 95.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Royerthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Royer: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Royer: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Royer: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Royer: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs RoyerAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.