Euroleague · resolved market
Euro Basket: Iceland vs Belgium
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac279f323d39e4f56d111da4a67df024ecaeb35ab7e04c30551c7aa98aa1e575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belgiumof Iceland, Belgium
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Iceland | 54c | 1,009$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Belgium | 41c | 634.94$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Belgium | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Iceland | 72c | 460$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Iceland | 50c | 324$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Belgium | 51c | 265.53$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.03 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Belgium | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Iceland | 65c | 198.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Belgium | 24c | 197.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Iceland | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Iceland | 66c | 73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…2b45backed Iceland | 58c | 57.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Belgium | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b6f5backed Belgium | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Iceland | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Belgium | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.