NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Jets: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac2a980e0b3fb4a19f8781940103d2f3bd5e37235c34fac64b3d1f9b7e6f0261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 41c | 3,728$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.63 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 59c | 2,635$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.75 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 58c | 1,126$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 59c | 731$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.71 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 30c | 640$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…7de2backed Over | 70c | 640$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 58c | 551.72$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.72 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over | 77c | 430.99$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…deb1backed Over | 59c | 351.37$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 58c | 153.81$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 74c | 140.23$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…43d5backed Over | 63c | 124.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 31c | 107$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 58c | 52.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Over | 61c | 46.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 42c | 36.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Over | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…5aa6backed Over | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…e480backed Under | 44c | 22.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…bf2abacked Over | 60c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 58c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Jets: O/U 5.5this page
- Canadiens vs. JetsCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.