NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Jets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fc90882edeacb81d49896a174e8c0dc216df6326e3d1692f6435f13af17ef4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 47c | 3,550$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.6 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 3,024$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.05 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.99 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 2,770$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.9 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 2,631$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.63 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…3b58backed Under | 54c | 1,944$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730f…952cbacked Over | 46c | 1,943$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 53c | 1,883$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 54c | 1,422$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.29 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,327$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.98 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 51c | 502.04$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 53c | 470$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.9 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Over | 47c | 297$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 46c | 129.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Under | 52c | 81.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Over | 48c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 76.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 54c | 56.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 36.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 46c | 32.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Under | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 45c | 31.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Under | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d21…8648backed Under | 54c | 23.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca11…702cbacked Over | 48c | 22.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 260 | 59.6%155 W · 105 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Jets: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. JetsCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Jets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.