NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac7bfb0a5f2aa407f0d25053c2f2054ab0ef2b6c28394adf4df4409f421bdcc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Predators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Predators | 2c | 3,913$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | +29.4wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 2,700$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Predators | 59c | 2,692$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.53 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 846.99$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.25 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Predators | 58c | 771.3$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.35 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Maple Leafs | 38c | 647$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.09 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Predators | 62c | 642$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Predators | 58c | 197.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 90.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Predators | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15a…5654backed Predators | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Maple Leafs | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Maple Leafs | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Predators vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Predators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.