Lol · resolved market
MSI Play-in: G2 vs. Bilibili Gaming
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacd65756cda2c50029ea0def81b372bb2a43ab5c74e63df11d68d0ce95ace5c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bilibili Gamingof G2, Bilibili Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed G2 | 11c | 5,692$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.96 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed G2 | 17c | 3,437$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dd…c9efbacked G2 | 7c | 3,307$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed G2 | 14c | 2,790$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.39 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked G2 | 12c | 2,777$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.25 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked G2 | 3c | 907.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 16%17 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed G2 | 11c | 900$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed G2 | 8c | 807.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 600 | 53.2%319 W · 281 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225c…40dcbacked G2 | 8c | 770$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed G2 | 7c | 624.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 525 | 38.9%204 W · 321 L | +18.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed G2 | 15c | 607.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked G2 | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed G2 | 13c | 370$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked G2 | 11c | 322$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed G2 | 13c | 306.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 259 | 52.9%137 W · 122 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed G2 | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 420 | 55.2%232 W · 188 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…3ea6backed G2 | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked G2 | 13c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…f26ebacked G2 | 15c | 129.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed G2 | 11c | 128.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…ee3cbacked G2 | 13c | 118.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked G2 | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.