College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas State (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad0e26aa2ff60df6a00641a1c56cb4dfe0d76d0cb145057a206bc56bcb622e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Stateof Texas State, Arkansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Texas State | 51c | 13,292$6,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,778.92 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Arkansas State | 49c | 10,051$4,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,126.5 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arkansas State | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Texas State | 49c | 5,070$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,508.75 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Texas State | 51c | 4,384$2,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,235.84 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Arkansas State | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Arkansas State | 47c | 1,882$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.19 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Texas State | 53c | 1,882$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.2 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Arkansas State | 45c | 1,650$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.5 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Texas State | 51c | 474$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.74 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Arkansas State | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Texas State | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…c4d6backed Arkansas State | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…3ba5backed Texas State | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas State (-13.5)this page
- O/U 64.5Under won
- Texas State vs. Arkansas StateArkansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.