College Football · resolved market
Texas State vs. Arkansas State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45cdd92c6254cf73ea0c71c762571feb4552b5149e99930e31ff0006816d4edf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Stateof Texas State, Arkansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arkansas State | 18c | 8,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,560 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arkansas State | 6c | 5,550$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,217 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Arkansas State | 19c | 1,310$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.1 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Texas State | 2c | 1,203$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Arkansas State | 24c | 1,183$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.64 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Texas State | 76c | 1,067$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Arkansas State | 19c | 890$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.63 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Arkansas State | 39c | 705.46$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Arkansas State | 5c | 683$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.85 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arkansas State | 8c | 434.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.64 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Arkansas State | 19c | 327.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.28 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Arkansas State | 31c | 173.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.45 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arkansas State | 13c | 159$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Arkansas State | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…e577backed Texas State | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…329ebacked Arkansas State | 24c | 102.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Arkansas State | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Arkansas State | 21c | 85.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Arkansas State | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Texas State | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Arkansas State | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Texas State | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas State vs. Arkansas Statethis page
- O/U 64.5Under won
- Spread: Texas State (-13.5)Arkansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.