Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Tatjana Maria vs Emerson Jones
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad5be2d5cc1edd28fe047771213478285bf8be213d0ad2e3f160ec21f3e820c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jonesof Maria, Jones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Maria | 30c | 1,376$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Jones | 70c | 1,376$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.8 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jones | 80c | 975.38$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.52 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Maria | 19c | 950$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maria | 2c | 675$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Maria | 25c | 394.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Maria | 28c | 330.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Jones | 72c | 277.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Maria | 8c | 270.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Jones | 75c | 265$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Maria | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Maria | 29c | 220$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Jones | 75c | 213.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maria | 13c | 165$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Maria | 22c | 163.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…f407backed Maria | 22c | 118.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 99 | 6.1%6 W · 93 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…2209backed Maria | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Jones | 74c | 98.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Maria | 20c | 89.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…0e96backed Maria | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Maria | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080b…0350backed Maria | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Jones | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Jones | 71c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Jones | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…cea2backed Jones | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International: Tatjana Maria vs Emerson Jonesthis page
- Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5)Jones won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.