Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad665e850a0407794a1bf81d94b967fd4695b3e99f35774fa82b05546ae1b140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 50c | 463.26$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 11c | 388.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 20c | 351.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 322$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 61c | 286.64$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 23c | 266.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 64c | 251.11$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 78c | 228.67$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 60c | 225.81$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 50c | 219.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e3…a500backed No | 13c | 135.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 15c | 133.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed No | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d2…6f72backed No | 21c | 104.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 45c | 87.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 38c | 86.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 71c | 79.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 63c | 67.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 64.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…97f4backed No | 44c | 61.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 27c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 57c | 54.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 44c | 52.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 40.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 65c | 39.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…f2b1backed No | 49c | 39.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 56c | 30.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 58c | 26.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 70c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 62c | 20.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 58c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed Yes | 73c | 19.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 65c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 73c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.