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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 2?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,565
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,565 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30a0…a458backed Yes2c899.99$22 inLost-$22.16114.8%9 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes7c602.67$40 inLost-$40.0212226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes12c315.28$36 inLost-$36.2910,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes5c273.99$12 inLost-$12.499,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c232.72$53 inLost-$53.517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes7c218.08$15 inLost-$15.2730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes9c188.63$18 inLost-$17.6690829.2%265 W · 643 L-21.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes7c149.99$10 inLost-$10.51,24416.7%208 W · 1,036 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed Yes11c136.38$15 inLost-$156845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c125.65$88 inWon+$37.448,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7834…4322backed Yes17c110.13$19 inLost-$195030%15 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes16c85.78$14 inLost-$13.771,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes31c81.47$26 inLost-$25.5426827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No76c49.64$38 inWon+$12.1424370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes22c47$10 inLost-$10.4659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6f0b…8202backed Yes31c42.57$13 inLost-$1310441.3%43 W · 61 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes27c40$11 inLost-$10.935362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No67c37.96$25 inWon+$12.654857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No76c23.48$18 inWon+$5.7344665.5%292 W · 154 L+1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No69c22.32$15 inWon+$6.924,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No70c21.38$15 inWon+$6.3833373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x455c…e548backed No74c14$10 inWon+$3.73348.5%16 W · 17 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick66cpaid-32.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.