NHL · resolved market
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Texas Stars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad7eea92e1d901fb4b99a745c2b22698db4881f1ad015a869aba1cfec162721d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Starsof Chicago Wolves, Texas Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,685 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Texas Stars | 56c | 2,359$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.27 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Chicago Wolves | 44c | 1,143$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.93 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Chicago Wolves | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Texas Stars | 57c | 437.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.28 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Chicago Wolves | 44c | 318.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Texas Stars | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Chicago Wolves | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Chicago Wolves | 44c | 202.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Chicago Wolves | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Chicago Wolves | 43c | 156.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago Wolves | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Texas Stars | 55c | 118.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Chicago Wolves | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Chicago Wolves | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Texas Stars | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Chicago Wolves | 46c | 77.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Chicago Wolves | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Texas Stars | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Chicago Wolves | 43c | 50.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Texas Stars | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Texas Stars | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…68dabacked Chicago Wolves | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Texas Stars | 67c | 37.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed Chicago Wolves | 44c | 32.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Texas Stars | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Texas Stars | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.