Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xada7568024415b83f3c28a4c000789bac44cf7b908545e520361d7e7176ecdb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Team Lynx, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 2,114$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.24 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…2779backed Team Lynx | 9c | 744.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 668.92$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Lynx | 47c | 664.24$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.07 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 606.71$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.68 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 599.91$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.95 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Lynx | 53c | 502.84$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.16 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 425.8$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.35 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 372.38$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Team Lynx | 30c | 323.4$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Team Lynx | 54c | 201.6$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 60c | 197.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 39c | 187.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…9377backed Team Lynx | 19c | 154.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Team Lynx | 52c | 126.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 105.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Team Lynx | 68c | 94.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 94.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed Team Lynx | 48c | 91.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Lynx | 42c | 89.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Lynx | 27c | 81.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Lynx | 20c | 67.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Team Lynx | 48c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Team Lynx | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Team Lynx | 52c | 57.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Team Lynx | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Team Lynx | 51c | 49.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 48.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Team Lynx | 53c | 45.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Lynx | 41c | 44.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 43.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…1958backed Team Lynx | 52c | 38.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…5bc2backed Team Lynx | 50c | 36.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked Team Lynx | 53c | 35.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…47c0backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 34.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Team Lynx | 60c | 33.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 29.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Team Lynx | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Team Lynx | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 19.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group ATeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.