Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d838a9e3293c960401f4496fb5660e8c2cc4d6c80b5fbe6d0289a1b93372ad4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Lynx | 76c | 4,088$3,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.72 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 3,381$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.02 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 3,274$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.26 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Ilbirs eSports | 17c | 2,124$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.89 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ilbirs eSports | 1c | 1,420$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Ilbirs eSports | 15c | 1,178$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.29 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…5539backed Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 1,118$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.91 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 1,110$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.46 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 1,095$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.63 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Lynx | 74c | 1,065$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.29 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 1,017$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.83 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…0074backed Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 933.28$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.51 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 815.29$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.29 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Lynx | 73c | 813.81$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.73 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 17c | 805.31$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.91 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Ilbirs eSports | 18c | 541.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Team Lynx | 80c | 496.96$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…2779backed Team Lynx | 63c | 473.88$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Ilbirs eSports | 19c | 320.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…9377backed Team Lynx | 72c | 277.43$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17f…0fb1backed Ilbirs eSports | 15c | 275.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…f0dbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 268.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 149 | 56.4%84 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…0d7cbacked Team Lynx | 74c | 264.55$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 234.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 195.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 75c | 162.51$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 159.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 154.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Lynx | 74c | 152.93$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 148.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 146.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Team Lynx | 75c | 131.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 104.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Lynx | 53c | 99.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Ilbirs eSports | 18c | 99.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Team Lynx | 71c | 98.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Team Lynx | 77c | 94.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Team Lynx | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Team Lynx | 63c | 80.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…af48backed Team Lynx | 55c | 76.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 68.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 68.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…acb4backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 65.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…77dabacked Team Lynx | 76c | 64.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 17c | 62.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Team Lynx | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 58.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Team Lynx | 72c | 54.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Team Lynx | 80c | 45.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…b4c8backed Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 44.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Ilbirs eSports | 29c | 42.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…2fbabacked Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 38.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…c22ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 31.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Team Lynx | 80c | 30.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Team Lynx | 68c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7125…a5aabacked Team Lynx | 68c | 28.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Team Lynx | 74c | 25.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…2a21backed Team Lynx | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…60cabacked Team Lynx | 72c | 18.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Team Lynx | 71c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.