Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadbd53f6b07abc2b3d245a1ef2588ee8dfa16a369fa9587babeb47597d71094e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 510.5$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 259.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 124.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 115.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 34c | 113.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 100.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 88.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 72.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 61.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 59.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 30c | 57.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 35c | 47.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes | 22c | 46.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 39.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 39c | 37.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked Yes | 36c | 31.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 25.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 64c | 24.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 80c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…16fbbacked No | 66c | 20.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 19.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 78c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 70c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.