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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 1?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,517
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,517 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c319.05$221 inWon+$98.026,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No43c145.73$63 inLost-$62.821,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes40c141.98$57 inWon+$84.524,50519.6%882 W · 3,623 L+47.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bab…ab36backed Yes77c135.73$104 inWon+$31.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked No63c125.49$79 inLost-$79.3617633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No12c125.02$16 inLost-$15.5272620.4%148 W · 578 L-46.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No23c124.39$29 inLost-$28.6120150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…fe58backed Yes30c115.7$35 inWon+$80.84630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes35c96.66$34 inWon+$63.051,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes34c82.38$28 inWon+$54.4255942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c77.8$40 inLost-$39.774,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c73.32$32 inLost-$31.5512,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No72c70.96$51 inLost-$50.867,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c70.02$19 inWon+$50.964,03235.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L+42.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c66.27$30 inLost-$30.4512,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes48c64.92$31 inWon+$33.6429770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Yes77c63.12$49 inWon+$14.248861.4%54 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes45c62.73$28 inWon+$34.3840935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c60.54$44 inLost-$44.093,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c59$35 inLost-$35.49,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe208…e98cbacked Yes34c56.78$19 inWon+$37.514551.1%23 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No60c50$30 inLost-$301,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No64c50$32 inLost-$322,26539.6%896 W · 1,369 L-56.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost-$153,03231.3%949 W · 2,083 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes37c45.43$17 inWon+$28.5914632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe058…cf72backed Yes35c38.81$13 inWon+$25.322642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e0…19ccbacked Yes41c37.64$15 inWon+$22.214562.2%28 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd561…d81dbacked Yes34c35.33$12 inWon+$23.153050%15 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No67c30.66$21 inLost-$20.633,13949.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc34…7a6bbacked Yes70c29.1$20 inWon+$8.73366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No77c26.26$20 inLost-$20.2227464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No79c26.15$21 inLost-$20.791,71060.8%1,039 W · 671 L-22.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No67c25.57$17 inLost-$17.091,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d5…5a62backed Yes57c24.43$14 inWon+$10.562642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No66c23.57$15 inLost-$15.441,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No80c19.64$16 inLost-$15.672,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes76c14.65$11 inWon+$3.4749951.7%258 W · 241 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No80c12.5$10 inLost-$101,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.