Us Midterms · resolved market
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadc9b1bd43e7d833bba87f84459c569c3d32e5f8b64ccfaecd1a3f76794955d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb401…df2abacked Yes | 14c | 3,386$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 645.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…9249backed No | 65c | 594.14$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…9157backed No | 65c | 582.71$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…87a1backed No | 65c | 581.24$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…fb14backed No | 65c | 580.2$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…932cbacked No | 65c | 572.51$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…b802backed No | 65c | 558.47$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf74…eb05backed No | 65c | 554.81$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…09e2backed No | 65c | 544.8$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa792…375dbacked No | 65c | 543.82$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 33c | 414.58$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.88 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 402.54$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b38…4599backed Yes | 35c | 309.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…4551backed Yes | 35c | 306.41$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6f…f8c5backed Yes | 35c | 305.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1284…24aebacked Yes | 35c | 305.41$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545f…c3f7backed Yes | 35c | 302.09$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…2877backed Yes | 35c | 296.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…633abacked No | 66c | 295.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd197…3008backed Yes | 35c | 295.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…6bcbbacked No | 66c | 292.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9027…ffefbacked No | 67c | 287.52$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ad…41f2backed Yes | 35c | 286.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…c462backed No | 67c | 284.6$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…cc3dbacked No | 67c | 283.89$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…d355backed No | 66c | 283.33$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5062…55edbacked No | 66c | 282.82$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…fdb4backed No | 66c | 282.13$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…6c5abacked No | 65c | 279.64$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…02aabacked No | 65c | 278.28$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6670…e1d1backed No | 66c | 278.23$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…a0f5backed No | 65c | 277.55$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b9…c874backed No | 62c | 277.29$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc782…82b4backed No | 62c | 277.25$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…6959backed No | 65c | 277.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…d502backed No | 67c | 277.15$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4080…7922backed No | 66c | 276.93$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…0059backed No | 62c | 276.83$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…3914backed Yes | 35c | 276.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ef…ad5ebacked No | 66c | 275.88$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…939ebacked No | 66c | 274.96$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc1…09e5backed No | 66c | 274.89$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1d…fb77backed No | 66c | 274.69$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513b…31fcbacked No | 64c | 274.63$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…c0cdbacked No | 66c | 274.58$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6201…e4dabacked No | 66c | 273.4$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…f599backed No | 62c | 273.18$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…856cbacked No | 66c | 272.87$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e66…3bdcbacked No | 66c | 272.78$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acc…379fbacked No | 66c | 272.77$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ff…a246backed No | 66c | 272.71$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772d…7646backed No | 66c | 272.63$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2d…2c96backed No | 65c | 272.11$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…e0e6backed No | 66c | 272.07$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…5170backed No | 66c | 271.56$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…34cfbacked No | 65c | 270.97$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…62f4backed No | 66c | 270.85$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…bb65backed No | 62c | 270.71$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…4906backed No | 66c | 270.7$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…8788backed No | 66c | 270.56$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3965…f11dbacked No | 66c | 270.29$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2653…fe5abacked No | 66c | 270.24$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a5…9158backed No | 66c | 269.88$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff8…7868backed No | 66c | 269.85$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…8002backed No | 66c | 269.53$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…2c31backed No | 66c | 269.37$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef91…5146backed No | 66c | 269.07$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…bb0abacked No | 66c | 268.5$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…c664backed No | 62c | 268.49$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efe…9bdabacked No | 66c | 268.48$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…9333backed No | 66c | 268.15$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ea…aea2backed No | 66c | 268.05$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de7…1031backed No | 66c | 266.86$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…73e1backed No | 62c | 266.64$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…670dbacked No | 66c | 265.87$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…7b99backed No | 67c | 265.63$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d92…60f3backed No | 66c | 265.43$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5d…52e9backed No | 66c | 265.43$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe69…0a6dbacked No | 65c | 265.05$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3b…90dfbacked No | 67c | 264.64$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…d7c9backed No | 66c | 264.54$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb290…8266backed No | 66c | 264.16$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…0da1backed No | 66c | 263.88$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…71c4backed No | 67c | 263.81$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9062…3447backed No | 66c | 263.67$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…9b2ebacked No | 62c | 262.45$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593f…6a23backed No | 67c | 261.48$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…4eacbacked No | 62c | 261.06$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…a5adbacked No | 65c | 260.21$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3378…1a31backed No | 62c | 259.67$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 34c | 259$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…fc6fbacked No | 66c | 257.04$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb6…3cb6backed No | 65c | 256.75$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d39…3c63backed No | 65c | 256.04$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…d611backed No | 66c | 255.86$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…447abacked No | 66c | 255.53$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…cb74backed No | 66c | 254.63$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e8…ba32backed No | 66c | 254.21$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b1…cff9backed No | 66c | 254.19$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?this page
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 600,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?Yes won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,500,000 and 1,800,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,400,000 and 2,700,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.