TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb401…df2abacked Yes14c3,386$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes14c645.01$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2310622.6%24 W · 82 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf795…9249backed No65c594.14$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0095…9157backed No65c582.71$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc9…87a1backed No65c581.24$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.172100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc864…fb14backed No65c580.2$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b3…932cbacked No65c572.51$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6718…b802backed No65c558.47$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf74…eb05backed No65c554.81$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce0a…09e2backed No65c544.8$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa792…375dbacked No65c543.82$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes33c414.58$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8824831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes30c402.54$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.359646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b38…4599backed Yes35c309.97$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc80…4551backed Yes35c306.41$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6f…f8c5backed Yes35c305.44$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1284…24aebacked Yes35c305.41$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x545f…c3f7backed Yes35c302.09$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf06…2877backed Yes35c296.41$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b26…633abacked No66c295.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd197…3008backed Yes35c295.32$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…6bcbbacked No66c292.27$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9027…ffefbacked No67c287.52$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ad…41f2backed Yes35c286.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1602…c462backed No67c284.6$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6356…cc3dbacked No67c283.89$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb852…d355backed No66c283.33$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5062…55edbacked No66c282.82$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0664…fdb4backed No66c282.13$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x44d5…6c5abacked No65c279.64$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…02aabacked No65c278.28$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6670…e1d1backed No66c278.23$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8766…a0f5backed No65c277.55$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b9…c874backed No62c277.29$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc782…82b4backed No62c277.25$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9a…6959backed No65c277.22$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58fe…d502backed No67c277.15$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4080…7922backed No66c276.93$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…0059backed No62c276.83$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8506…3914backed Yes35c276.58$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94ef…ad5ebacked No66c275.88$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca2…939ebacked No66c274.96$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc1…09e5backed No66c274.89$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e1d…fb77backed No66c274.69$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x513b…31fcbacked No64c274.63$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…c0cdbacked No66c274.58$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6201…e4dabacked No66c273.4$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb4…f599backed No62c273.18$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3958…856cbacked No66c272.87$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e66…3bdcbacked No66c272.78$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5acc…379fbacked No66c272.77$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ff…a246backed No66c272.71$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x772d…7646backed No66c272.63$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf2d…2c96backed No65c272.11$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c66…e0e6backed No66c272.07$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5664…5170backed No66c271.56$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f05…34cfbacked No65c270.97$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee64…62f4backed No66c270.85$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37a1…bb65backed No62c270.71$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…4906backed No66c270.7$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x047b…8788backed No66c270.56$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3965…f11dbacked No66c270.29$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2653…fe5abacked No66c270.24$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a5…9158backed No66c269.88$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff8…7868backed No66c269.85$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe42b…8002backed No66c269.53$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0310…2c31backed No66c269.37$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef91…5146backed No66c269.07$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f5…bb0abacked No66c268.5$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…c664backed No62c268.49$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2efe…9bdabacked No66c268.48$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4c…9333backed No66c268.15$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ea…aea2backed No66c268.05$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4de7…1031backed No66c266.86$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd036…73e1backed No62c266.64$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450a…670dbacked No66c265.87$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda95…7b99backed No67c265.63$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d92…60f3backed No66c265.43$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f5d…52e9backed No66c265.43$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe69…0a6dbacked No65c265.05$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba3b…90dfbacked No67c264.64$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8e…d7c9backed No66c264.54$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb290…8266backed No66c264.16$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…0da1backed No66c263.88$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f8…71c4backed No67c263.81$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9062…3447backed No66c263.67$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b2…9b2ebacked No62c262.45$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x593f…6a23backed No67c261.48$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9577…4eacbacked No62c261.06$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9be9…a5adbacked No65c260.21$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3378…1a31backed No62c259.67$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes34c259$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0615431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…fc6fbacked No66c257.04$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb6…3cb6backed No65c256.75$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d39…3c63backed No65c256.04$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae9f…d611backed No66c255.86$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78b3…447abacked No66c255.53$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7b…cb74backed No66c254.63$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e8…ba32backed No66c254.21$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b1…cff9backed No66c254.19$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.