Us Midterms · resolved market
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19e84fccf0c3ec2b32b572e6bfd8fa7f916244ddf22e8379cba90a9c4a74e6e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 50c | 4,164$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.13 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,726$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.42 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 4c | 849.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 38c | 780.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.09 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 2c | 671.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 4c | 494.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 78c | 462$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.18 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 3c | 410.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 62c | 369.23$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 5c | 279.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…0377backed No | 74c | 252.69$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5d…cb42backed No | 74c | 249.34$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 5c | 248.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…2dfebacked No | 74c | 247.48$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…d733backed No | 74c | 247.35$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…9d17backed No | 74c | 245.26$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…2df3backed No | 74c | 245.23$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…5cb2backed No | 74c | 241.3$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…15e2backed No | 74c | 240.08$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c8…872bbacked No | 74c | 239.5$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…28aebacked No | 74c | 237.71$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…af51backed No | 74c | 233.19$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…2ab4backed No | 74c | 230.54$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…d589backed No | 74c | 230.08$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…e9fbbacked No | 74c | 227.33$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…9019backed No | 74c | 225.43$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked Yes | 65c | 161.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 51c | 126.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 10c | 116$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 31c | 87.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 24c | 64.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 50c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 67c | 42.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 41.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 70c | 30.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b36abacked Yes | 50c | 30.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…d3a5backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…736cbacked No | 52c | 24.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 49c | 20.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…6cd8backed Yes | 80c | 18.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?this page
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 600,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,500,000 and 1,800,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,400,000 and 2,700,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.