Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaddc8dbf32dd5ccb7e60654cf9c54aa7e5fa7c4316a55d790e8dc8d5c1dad378
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Louisville Cardinals, Duke Blue Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Louisville Cardinals | 45c | 1,228$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.74 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5901…63a2backed Duke Blue Devils | 55c | 556.36$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Duke Blue Devils | 55c | 541$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.45 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Duke Blue Devils | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Louisville Cardinals | 45c | 273.33$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Louisville Cardinals | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Louisville Cardinals | 45c | 92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a5…ac2dbacked Duke Blue Devils | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Duke Blue Devils | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Duke Blue Devils | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Louisville Cardinals | 45c | 32.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Duke Blue Devils | 57c | 18.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 120 | 34.2%41 W · 79 L | -13.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville CardinalsDuke Blue Devils won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 161.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.