Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be <42.5% on October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadef30ea084bf59b62be1fe8de3b6baaa6360c3984b11908267b7381d0717110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b78…f26dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,709$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…4f78backed Yes | 3c | 746.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed Yes | 15c | 681.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 7c | 590.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 5c | 357.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 355.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6614…39cfbacked Yes | 8c | 241.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <42.5% on October 10?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 44.5% on October 10?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.5% and 42.9% on October 10?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on October 10?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on October 10?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on October 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.