Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd5e552bd762b1373b4ea461b06cb7c4d278885c8c8cd8538368edb39a68ea83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 34c | 947.74$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.74 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 42c | 814.33$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.72 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 43c | 364.04$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.04 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 36c | 331.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.29 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 315.32$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.8 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 285.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1280…4f9bbacked No | 64c | 270.77$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 55c | 260.87$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.74 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 61c | 226$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.32 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 220.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.59 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…7786backed Yes | 51c | 188.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 50c | 187.02$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 166.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 159$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 44c | 139.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 105.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 59c | 72.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 66c | 50.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…4f78backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 41c | 48.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 68c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…e881backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…be76backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on October 10?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <42.5% on October 10?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 44.5% on October 10?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.5% and 42.9% on October 10?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on October 10?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on October 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.