Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0228c334b70792abe9e3c0f8dddf34b8a371837d830c2278c518338c6d4cde13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 29c | 1,239$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.76 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…4f78backed Yes | 12c | 934.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 37c | 813.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 699.98$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 697.64$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.98 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 53c | 565.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.02 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 333.94$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed Yes | 38c | 317.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 35c | 300.18$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 64c | 299.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 66c | 294.12$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 61c | 292.63$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 26c | 272.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 34c | 202$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Yes | 39c | 150.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 42c | 146.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 62c | 115.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 92.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…0becbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b7…587abacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…5d68backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 38.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 47c | 36.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…a34dbacked No | 65c | 34.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3117…0f8fbacked Yes | 40c | 32.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on October 10?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <42.5% on October 10?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 44.5% on October 10?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.5% and 42.9% on October 10?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on October 10?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on October 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.