Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-11-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1976a071e180bf7163605dfc8df96395a078d1a485e6e4609130aa4de04995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 63c | 2,379$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.28 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 29c | 1,667$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.43 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 28c | 1,667$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.83 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 70c | 1,621$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.64 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce3c…7fc4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 887.87$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.38 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…5431backed No | 51c | 881.04$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 764$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.97 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Yes | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 40c | 450$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 71c | 420$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 25c | 321.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 46c | 232$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.7wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…9b21backed Yes | 55c | 225$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…e520backed No | 45c | 195$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 45c | 132$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 56c | 124$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…43e6backed Yes | 16c | 107.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked No | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 44c | 92.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…9fc1backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 69c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…962abacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb91…f766backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 45c | 35.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes | 53c | 34.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…76dfbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7630backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…cb04backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…767abacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…bd87backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-11-02?this page
- Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-11-02?No won
- Will Toulouse FC vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.