Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina beat Empoli?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1c5ea7b5d3235b7e58001846d350ed22ab35efb29060145e0e64cf2eded612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa5d…ccb7backed Yes | 54c | 1,005$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 48c | 923.64$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.35 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…c09cbacked No | 46c | 745$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…8c33backed Yes | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Yes | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…6a00backed No | 46c | 480$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…78ccbacked Yes | 54c | 460$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…14cabacked No | 46c | 425$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 49c | 310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…96e0backed No | 46c | 260$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f4…90f7backed No | 46c | 225$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…fad0backed No | 48c | 225$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…f77abacked No | 46c | 215$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79e…1adcbacked No | 46c | 210$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…8b4dbacked Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…235abacked Yes | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…b4debacked Yes | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…61aabacked No | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf8…93c3backed Yes | 52c | 114.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…4afabacked No | 49c | 113.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 47c | 113.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 51c | 113.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065a…7b78backed Yes | 52c | 110.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…a11fbacked Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…d922backed Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…7a9bbacked No | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…1f1bbacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…2dc1backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 51c | 31.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Yes | 49c | 31.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…9249backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…8d58backed Yes | 52c | 22.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina beat Empoli? this page
- Will Empoli beat Fiorentina? No won
- Will Fiorentina vs. Empoli end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.