Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae4350a25dfcc04860e58cf26d515d120442d9abb9a10bb3cf84a8b4e81cf3b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Ilbirs eSports, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Inner Circle | 74c | 2,049$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.31 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 991.88$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.35 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 966.24$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.54 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Inner Circle | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.98 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Ilbirs eSports | 19c | 482.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…8a0bbacked Inner Circle | 79c | 440$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ilbirs eSports | 20c | 420.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 408.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…b7aebacked Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 379.91$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.13 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 76c | 343.3$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Ilbirs eSports | 20c | 327.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Inner Circle | 73c | 322.09$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 238.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed Ilbirs eSports | 18c | 226.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 187.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 186.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Ilbirs eSports | 29c | 163.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Inner Circle | 45c | 160.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.42 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Inner Circle | 76c | 157.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355b…18ecbacked Inner Circle | 68c | 144$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Inner Circle | 68c | 135.53$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…da18backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 117.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +123%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Ilbirs eSports | 19c | 108.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Ilbirs eSports | 35c | 104.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 100.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Ilbirs eSports | 20c | 99.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Inner Circle | 63c | 93.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 85.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ilbirs eSports | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…c96ebacked Inner Circle | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 72.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 71.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Inner Circle | 74c | 70.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 60.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Inner Circle | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 56.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 53.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 48.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…bb4abacked Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 43.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 43.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 41.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…d1dcbacked Inner Circle | 70c | 40.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…12a9backed Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 38.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 117 | 39.3%46 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…11e1backed Inner Circle | 77c | 38.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Inner Circle | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…be55backed Inner Circle | 74c | 26.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Inner Circle | 68c | 20.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Inner Circle | 74c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.