Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb9fd4b582ef8b37f92ddc4fd8936bbfea0d10bde1028e79511ffa78947be083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Ilbirs eSports, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Ilbirs eSports | 35c | 2,829$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.82 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Inner Circle | 66c | 2,269$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.7 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 2,044$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.18 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Ilbirs eSports | 3c | 1,578$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 77c | 1,114$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.36 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 979.09$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.95 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Inner Circle | 65c | 788.23$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.88 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle | 66c | 628.42$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.37 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Inner Circle | 64c | 507.19$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 260$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…627fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 255.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Inner Circle | 66c | 235$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Inner Circle | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 34c | 81.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Inner Circle | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Inner Circle | 76c | 70.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Inner Circle | 76c | 66.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Inner Circle | 63c | 63.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Inner Circle | 61c | 51.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle | 61c | 47.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed Inner Circle | 64c | 46.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Inner Circle | 64c | 43.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Inner Circle | 63c | 34.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 30.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…12a9backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 29.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 117 | 39.3%46 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Inner Circle | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.