Asian League · resolved market
Will Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae4b3d92dfbf729d1d1c4e1417dcc15eba5b50e062470235a681be0ac0768744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 72c | 4,157$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.98 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 62c | 3,863$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.74 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,798$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.16 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 28c | 1,961$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.19 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked No | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.79 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 39c | 1,321$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.48 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 916.69$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.54 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 39c | 743.18$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.3 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd4…51b1backed No | 72c | 520.83$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 472.59$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 29c | 467.29$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Yes | 9c | 429.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 32c | 426.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 33c | 299.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 74c | 246.49$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 67c | 198.83$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 71c | 148$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 69c | 147.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 28c | 141.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c8…dc53backed Yes | 42c | 133.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 40c | 126.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 28c | 122.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Yes | 43c | 116.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 67c | 114.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 27c | 109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 100.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 21c | 95.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 13c | 84.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 65c | 83.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 21c | 81.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 29c | 69.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…8983backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 68c | 49.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 27c | 48.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 59c | 45.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed No | 73c | 37.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 59c | 32.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 56c | 24.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 65c | 21.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa063…338fbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?this page
- Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-06?Yes won
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.