Asian League · resolved market
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d1c1d96948fe74dd5074638764492911ae0a05448b827f9f17d12d6a4cbae22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 6,419$4,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.72 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 27c | 4,736$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.71 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Yes | 26c | 4,315$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 3,391$2,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.18 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 30c | 3,340$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 20c | 2,250$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 2,161$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.51 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.98 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…6a99backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed No | 80c | 1,312$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.37 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 74c | 1,044$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.09 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 26c | 771.46$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 26c | 454$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 76c | 419.82$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 23c | 417.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 23c | 408.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 287 | 32.8%94 W · 193 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 317.66$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 74c | 299.48$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 27c | 274.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 21c | 208.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 75c | 184.77$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…56fdbacked No | 79c | 179.26$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 10c | 178.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 21c | 161$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 450 | 52.2%235 W · 215 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Yes | 22c | 141.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 82 | 14.6%12 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 129.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 20c | 129.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 20c | 102.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 24c | 99.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Yes | 25c | 91.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 74c | 77.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 75c | 60.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 74c | 59.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked No | 76c | 52.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…7a54backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…72b2backed No | 77c | 40.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…8b20backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 75c | 36.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 77c | 32.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 74c | 30.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 424 | 51.2%217 W · 207 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 80c | 27.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked No | 76c | 25.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed No | 77c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked No | 76c | 23.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 76c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 74c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed No | 74c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 74c | 17.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 76c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…460fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 74c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-06?this page
- Will Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?No won
- Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.