Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae5a0f704779278e93da5504a3566cbcb2afee1bb029b19738ec48d7d020463d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 78c | 351.66$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked No | 13c | 252.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 74 | 1.4%1 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 65c | 175.93$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…a637backed No | 33c | 92.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca72…b87fbacked Yes | 68c | 91.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…d852backed Yes | 20c | 83.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 82.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…06e8backed No | 33c | 81.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -93%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc3…291cbacked No | 16c | 70.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…2ef2backed No | 29c | 64.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8028…97c6backed No | 33c | 42.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x152d…d12ebacked No | 31c | 36.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 36°C or higher on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.