Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae91583c0554d1674fbdbc54e813318ead42dd01844d74f113b87c4c0220182d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 72c | 6,277$4,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1470…7cbebacked Yes | 28c | 6,277$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 41c | 4,729$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.78 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked No | 42c | 3,596$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 74c | 2,152$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.55 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 26c | 2,152$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.55 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,326$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.14 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 72c | 928.7$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 890$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 28c | 625$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 25c | 520.56$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 69c | 475$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.25 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 436$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 32c | 234.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 26c | 94.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 23c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 39c | 62.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 79c | 57.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…2c08backed No | 74c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x123c…d50ebacked No | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…1754backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.