Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9e30d367089656d89735742c939960679e44d6f5cb38a6ff2d1c637b360382a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 26,351$13,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,464.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Yes | 49c | 2,319$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 50c | 2,006$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 62c | 725.02$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.02 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 50c | 666$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 50c | 592.95$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.48 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 49c | 514.65$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 48c | 488.6$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.07 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 44c | 402.6$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.14 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 52c | 399.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 34c | 302.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 34c | 254$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 44c | 225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 50c | 225$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 56c | 200.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…8864backed Yes | 47c | 128.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed Yes | 16c | 125.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 49c | 122.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 44c | 111.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…af5cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 20c | 72.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…cfdbbacked Yes | 50c | 40.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 47c | 36.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa0…b070backed Yes | 50c | 33.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f08…ec15backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ad…fa6cbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 63c | 26.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…93ecbacked Yes | 49c | 20.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76f…d928backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff2…8a43backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.