Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaebf46af0c6b3ae8cacef4e470f68f54b36dc04ab238cbc855064981825214df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 22c | 6,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…b824backed Yes | 0c | 5,600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 4,879$3,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 78c | 1,165$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.38 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 78c | 228.47$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 78c | 174.8$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 151.49$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 27c | 146.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Yes | 23c | 134$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Yes | 23c | 116$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…b6aebacked Yes | 10c | 106$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Yes | 23c | 93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked No | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…012fbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 78c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 79c | 12.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.