Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfee98f4166e0dc72abea118fec6a75bfa078cf86483b7cf2520e942635faf7d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Yes | 24c | 133$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 103.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 86.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?this page
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.