Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x588ad7853ea387358ecbe9304dda988d24b1eb0836604b5b3a47b1e301fda0af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 51c | 30,000$15,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,686.69 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 49c | 27,140$13,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,298.6 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…2d16backed Yes | 56c | 16,000$8,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,120 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 44c | 7,570$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.5 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 46c | 6,000$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.84 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed No | 48c | 1,445$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.02 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 1,082$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 37c | 1,000$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 51c | 748.04$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.54 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked No | 47c | 640$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 54c | 518.79$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.64 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 48c | 443.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 15c | 400$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 31c | 321.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 73c | 315.07$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 78c | 307.21$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 43c | 279.87$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 7c | 220.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 7c | 216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 45c | 206.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Yes | 52c | 192.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 56c | 169.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 52c | 146.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 50c | 139.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed No | 47c | 122$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…c348backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed No | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed No | 47c | 83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…7db9backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed No | 45c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Yes | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed No | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Yes | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Yes | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Yes | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Yes | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.