Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaebf8a0be2710ffd7369135d8c668a0aba14cbc70b1ba8222389ced33fd38718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 205.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 27c | 185.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 10c | 176.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 56c | 164.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 145.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 32c | 119.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 114.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 105.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 105.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 18c | 91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 41c | 84.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 81.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 37c | 70.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 70.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 19c | 65.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 37c | 64.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 39c | 63.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 71c | 61.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 41c | 56.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 40c | 55.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 31c | 54.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 30c | 49.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 64c | 46.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 45.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 33c | 42.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 66c | 39.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 39.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 32c | 37.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 34c | 36.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 71c | 35.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 34c | 35.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…49d7backed Yes | 35c | 34.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…e65bbacked Yes | 30c | 33.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 32.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 31.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…8d5dbacked No | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 71c | 27.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 63c | 27.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 25.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 65c | 24.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 23.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…826bbacked No | 66c | 19.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 63c | 17.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.