Champions League · resolved market
Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeccd252b5ea74d098fcc9819d15d33ca4390ed01f232e83e7e0ddfc20ccf1a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 1c | 3,750$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 32c | 1,070$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.32 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 68c | 518.38$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x586b…52d9backed Over | 46c | 313.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 69c | 251.89$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 28c | 234$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 73c | 211.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 66c | 210.82$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 34c | 204.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…5390backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 69c | 136$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 68c | 132$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 50c | 107.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 30c | 93.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 52c | 79.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 187 | 36.4%68 W · 119 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 40c | 62.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 64c | 61.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…9d72backed Under | 56c | 57.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 37c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 28c | 39.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: Ararat-Armenia FA O/U 0.5Over won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Ararat-Armenia FA (-1.5)Ararat-Armenia FA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.