Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaecddbe2665cefbb289958c2fa9dda7aad3107cd721056c5fb908a90f6b9ec4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Over | 52c | 43,127$22,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,426.04 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 40,695$19,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,106.75 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 6,110$3,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,605.1 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 2,498$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 46c | 1,994$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.74 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 1,733$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.15 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…70d4backed Over | 54c | 1,624$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 1,099$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.36 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 29c | 1,088$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.12 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 990.32$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.77 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 54c | 933.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Under | 48c | 827.08$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 53c | 491.33$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.49 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 439.24$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.55 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 49c | 285.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 32c | 262.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.81 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 48c | 223$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 54c | 189.52$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 48c | 168.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 64c | 166.66$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 54c | 157.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7226…873dbacked Under | 47c | 155.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 49c | 115$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e5…292fbacked Over | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 46c | 107.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 102$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Over | 37c | 89.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 26c | 84.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…4a65backed Over | 54c | 83.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 52c | 77.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 47c | 75.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 48c | 65.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 54c | 55.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Under | 55c | 44.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 64c | 38.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 47c | 30.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 54c | 28.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 57c | 28.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Over | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 49c | 20.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 56c | 18.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.