Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2407a2ba34eef6dfe1d27b8cca327a8c3efa9bf07e910e69270dc680f582dcb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 2,757$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.91 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b69…e094backed Yes | 56c | 1,129$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 44c | 971.68$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.06 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 57c | 880.8$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 57c | 863.04$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.69 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 43c | 789.47$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 47c | 514$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.58 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 69c | 503.45$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.08 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 50c | 305$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 43c | 266.33$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…5754backed Yes | 56c | 138.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed No | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 57c | 87.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 70c | 84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 43c | 47.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 63c | 42.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed No | 44c | 36.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfe…f954backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…1618backed No | 44c | 34.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked No | 44c | 32.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 43c | 27.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99df…b59abacked No | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.