Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed5d7936b77833f3efeefd91531b6f0e98a8c36e611bee00495717e416d93b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked 1win | 15c | 2,896$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.71 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed 1win | 20c | 959.17$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…89f8backed 1win | 14c | 862.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked 1win | 7c | 789.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed 1win | 16c | 418.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed 1win | 11c | 312.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed 1win | 32c | 287.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed 1win | 6c | 167.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked 1win | 9c | 160.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked 1win | 17c | 100.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked 1win | 32c | 74.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group ANigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.