Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5d5fafc201aee4bde7d918e0cd34d1ae673be5271392ad45d97832cdd59aa8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 1,456$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.14 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed 1win | 37c | 880.51$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.85 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed 1win | 37c | 800.79$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.91 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked 1win | 35c | 752.32$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.65 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed 1win | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 447.11$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a9…3bb6backed 1win | 36c | 400.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 368.61$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 333.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.28 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed 1win | 37c | 270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 264.01$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 250.49$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed 1win | 31c | 249.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 247.18$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 244.05$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked 1win | 39c | 224.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 217.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 214.1$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 164.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed 1win | 37c | 147.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 138.65$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 1win | 29c | 86.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked 1win | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 82.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked 1win | 41c | 67.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2555…5254backed 1win | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 65.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 48.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 39.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed 1win | 38c | 38.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cea…d534backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 34.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed 1win | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 25.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group ANigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.