Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fbeb111bd0fba9d80c72e2b12aa20709fdc948e713bbd1b8f5de01fb7a146eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed 1win | 14c | 4,665$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.07 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed 1win | 16c | 1,328$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.6 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed 1win | 17c | 841.72$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 15c | 664.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked 1win | 37c | 523.26$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.41 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed 1win | 35c | 493.89$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 465.95$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 451.85$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.15 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…555dbacked 1win | 17c | 441.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 427.67$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.64 | 147 | 62.6%92 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked 1win | 34c | 284.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…6a5abacked 1win | 5c | 259.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed 1win | 33c | 223.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 207.71$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed 1win | 33c | 196.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a0…79ddbacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 187.59$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56ea…4ff9backed 1win | 17c | 183.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked 1win | 28c | 165.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked 1win | 20c | 158.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed 1win | 26c | 149.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed 1win | 16c | 149$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 1win | 16c | 120.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked 1win | 15c | 97.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2555…5254backed 1win | 16c | 89.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed 1win | 34c | 76.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb795…1a30backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 69.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…3469backed 1win | 22c | 64.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 215 | 51.6%111 W · 104 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…c511backed 1win | 18c | 60.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked 1win | 35c | 59.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked 1win | 19c | 58.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1win | 17c | 58.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed 1win | 34c | 50.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed 1win | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…af5ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5624…0deabacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1125…1d8ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.