Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump sue over South Park episode?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeee1e151422ba53531aed029df7c7b756bd18c3dd80caadc9f54e19e09bcc09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 4c | 10,555$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.72 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 9c | 4,489$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.28 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 2c | 2,300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,831$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,683$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes | 8c | 1,418$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…0837backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 5c | 796.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…ed39backed Yes | 5c | 747.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c53…749bbacked Yes | 7c | 739.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed Yes | 7c | 728.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 26cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba1…822cbacked Yes | 7c | 699.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…16b8backed Yes | 6c | 626.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 4c | 540.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed Yes | 6c | 365$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…7d36backed Yes | 7c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b91…f8e7backed Yes | 6c | 234.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a1…3c6dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc039…5ecfbacked Yes | 8c | 156.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.