La Liga · resolved market
Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf045b8c701dbb62bb46eda8543a7424b9c8c809cfc09ff2ada04e6555964b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 4,414$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.25 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 57c | 3,599$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.68 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Under | 42c | 1,341$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.22 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 50c | 1,010$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.98 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 42c | 673.81$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 60c | 459$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 41c | 401.1$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.45 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 58c | 342.48$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 39c | 340$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 50c | 288.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.49 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 32c | 199$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.38 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 57c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 53c | 129.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 26c | 100.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.61 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 58c | 79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6377…a709backed Over | 61c | 77.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…dbc5backed Under | 40c | 77.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Under | 72c | 57.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…c110backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 266 | 41.4%110 W · 156 L | +15.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 55c | 45.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 60c | 45.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Over | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…6344backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Under | 64c | 29.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla: O/U 2.5this page
- Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Atletico Madrid (-1.5)Atletico Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.