Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperswap FDV above $40M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf1094c51c4a2344b08b960fff1ac42feec76261aaecce6cb6d385211202d143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 8c | 4,100$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,708$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed Yes | 7c | 2,522$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.56 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 2c | 1,881$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked No | 46c | 1,470$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.98 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0d…570abacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…8a8fbacked Yes | 10c | 626.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…f6d4backed Yes | 13c | 500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 9c | 486.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…a0efbacked Yes | 4c | 385.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa86…2e0dbacked Yes | 41c | 293.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…30e4backed Yes | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x114b…bdd8backed Yes | 65c | 176.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66dd…4e1abacked No | 68c | 148.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe58e…2a67backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ca…4c32backed Yes | 31c | 120.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…a875backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +6.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…7122backed Yes | 56c | 91.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…d97ebacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2033…7581backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 44c | 54.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff4…5796backed Yes | 43c | 48.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hyperswap FDV above $40M one day after launch?this page
- Hyperswap FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Hyperswap FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.