Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperswap FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb168d361adb0a04206d5291de3e654845f11a5429df3cd3aeb1994b74f62144
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99db…c70fbacked Yes | 21c | 13,652$2,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,375$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…c4f4backed No | 79c | 8,922$7,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…b6f8backed No | 79c | 7,808$6,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc2…a333backed Yes | 19c | 5,260$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,040$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…38b2backed Yes | 21c | 2,320$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514d…3893backed Yes | 16c | 1,710$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…b7bdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,123$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…bdfbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,064$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…6f0cbacked Yes | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…0ac6backed Yes | 12c | 989.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…6537backed Yes | 19c | 913.84$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e24…ed17backed Yes | 19c | 893.1$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 857$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes | 21c | 842$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4197…395cbacked Yes | 14c | 839.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…5049backed Yes | 21c | 834.47$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…a96cbacked Yes | 12c | 824.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…3422backed Yes | 40c | 795.31$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…c104backed No | 75c | 738.35$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2165backed Yes | 8c | 730$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…ff83backed Yes | 11c | 689.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3d…68ebbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c3…92e2backed Yes | 9c | 659.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 7c | 536.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…4deebacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…6e59backed Yes | 20c | 511.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…a229backed Yes | 20c | 504.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefa…de9ebacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…30e4backed Yes | 16c | 450$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5310…ac41backed Yes | 9c | 442.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…2616backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2c…e158backed Yes | 12c | 399.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 15c | 346.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd093…9a7dbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…69b5backed Yes | 50c | 324.84$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…c5e0backed Yes | 19c | 318.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…7140backed Yes | 18c | 305.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…010fbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…007bbacked Yes | 9c | 270$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…011cbacked Yes | 9c | 270$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cab…90a7backed Yes | 10c | 270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…ffedbacked Yes | 20c | 256.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192b…a3fcbacked Yes | 27c | 254.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…0614backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed Yes | 16c | 242.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…d367backed No | 50c | 234.06$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +243.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…5e1abacked Yes | 15c | 189$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa065…40a9backed Yes | 19c | 180.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…54f0backed No | 56c | 177.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…c900backed Yes | 19c | 172.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…a91fbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146b…1d38backed Yes | 20c | 151.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7c…c0c6backed Yes | 32c | 145.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114b…bdd8backed Yes | 19c | 136.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…fb09backed Yes | 23c | 132.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9174…e2b0backed Yes | 40c | 126.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…a859backed Yes | 34c | 117.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 19c | 105.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…d184backed Yes | 20c | 101.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…2edfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 33cpaid | +76%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…ea62backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c45…108bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02a…4372backed Yes | 20c | 74.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…2676backed No | 76c | 65.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3705…e48ebacked Yes | 16c | 63.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…325bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…d543backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9879…6effbacked Yes | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…1f6bbacked Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0b87backed No | 69c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4758…4c1ebacked Yes | 50c | 32.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…0d12backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hyperswap FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Hyperswap FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Hyperswap FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.