Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf1803c982080e715e3e33750e3cbbc2be2f5be43c78cc9dfeff7b1537ec9538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 217.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.22 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 7c | 201.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.54 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 31c | 194.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 180$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 164$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 30c | 153.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 41c | 127.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 18c | 113.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 108.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 79c | 102.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 24c | 97.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 77.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 76.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 41c | 75.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 53c | 66.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 52.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 51.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 33c | 50.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 60c | 41.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 31c | 41.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 38.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 80c | 37.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 35.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d0…fad2backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 33.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 66c | 32.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 38c | 31.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 59c | 30.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 27.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 57c | 27.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 50c | 21.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 20.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.