Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Little Rock Trojans vs. Lindenwood Lions: O/U 149.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4b1faa898c1fd52b07beda9a8c0d8206bee39ba7b051896504ef07fe808b2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 50c | 219,150$109,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,587.02 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 50c | 154,406$77,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,203 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 18,334$9,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,158.86 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 13,466$6,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,786.65 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Under | 50c | 5,500$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 50c | 4,400$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 1,257$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.74 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Under | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 50c | 199$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Under | 51c | 195.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d22…95b7backed Under | 53c | 37.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Little Rock Trojans vs. Lindenwood Lions: O/U 149.5this page
- Little Rock Trojans vs. Lindenwood LionsLittle Rock Trojans won
- Little Rock Trojans vs. Lindenwood Lions: O/U 147.5Over won
- Little Rock Trojans vs. Lindenwood Lions: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Lindenwood Lions (-6.5)Little Rock Trojans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.